Jevons Paradox vs. Moore’s Law: Why We Always Underestimate Technology's Future

Why Jevons Paradox and Moore’s Law Prove We’re Always Underestimating Technology

There’s something hilarious about looking back at past predictions about technology. The one that always gets me? That infamous (possibly misattributed) Bill Gates quote: "No one will ever need more than 64K of memory." Oh, Bill. How adorable. Today, I have individual memes that take up more storage than that.

But this isn’t just about Gates and his 64K moment - this is a broader pattern. Humans, despite all our brilliance, are spectacularly bad at predicting how much of a good thing we’ll use once it becomes more efficient. Enter: Jevons Paradox.

Jevons Paradox: The "Oh, We’ll Just Use More of It" Effect

Back in the 19th century, a British economist, William Stanley Jevons, noticed something weird. As steam engines became more efficient at burning coal, people didn’t use less coal. They used more. The cheaper and more efficient something becomes, the more people lean into it.

Fast forward to today, and AI is proving Jevons right again. The cost of AI models is dropping, their intelligence is skyrocketing, and guess what? Instead of slowing down, we’re cramming AI into every possible application. From writing our emails to generating cat pictures, we just keep using more AI.

Moore’s Law: The "Tech Gets Faster, and We Want Even More" Effect

Now, let's talk about Moore’s Law. In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on a chip would double every couple of years, making computers exponentially faster and cheaper. He was right - for decades.

This is why your phone today is more powerful than the computer that sent astronauts to the moon. And yet, somehow, it still feels sluggish when you have 37 Chrome tabs open. Why? Because every time computing power increases, we find new, more demanding applications. We’re like kids who get a bigger toy box and immediately demand even bigger toys.

Jevons vs. Moore: The Ultimate Tech Showdown

Jevons Paradox and Moore’s Law are basically two sides of the same coin:

• Moore’s Law predicts that technology will keep getting exponentially better.
• Jevons Paradox predicts that as it does, we’ll use even more of it than we ever thought we would.

The result? A never-ending cycle where efficiency fuels demand, and demand fuels even more advancements. It’s why “no one needs more than 64K” turned into “no one needs more than GPT-5” which will, inevitably, turn into “no one needs more than GPT-10” before we all start casually chatting with AI versions of ourselves in the metaverse.

The Lesson: Never Underestimate Our Ability to Want More

So, what can we learn from all this? First, any time someone says, “We’ll never need more than [X],” get ready to laugh at them in about a decade. Second, AI and computing aren’t slowing down—they’re accelerating. And if history has taught us anything, it’s that efficiency doesn’t reduce demand. It makes us want way more of the thing.

Which brings me to the final question: how long before we start saying, “Nobody will ever need more than AI that can run the entire world economy in real time”?

I’d give it about five years. Maybe less if Moore and Jevons have anything to say about it.

Will the Real Demographic Dividend Group Please Stand Up?

When we talk about the demographic dividend, it’s usually a celebration of the young - the bustling, ambitious, and energetic crowd in their mid-twenties. This group is often heralded as the economic engine of a nation, the labor force that drives GDP growth. But here’s a question worth pondering: Does consumption or savings contribute more to the economy? And if it’s savings, then maybe we’ve been looking at the wrong demographic all along.

Let’s peel back the layers of this argument.

The Traditional View: The Young Workforce as the Demographic Dividend

The term demographic dividend often paints a rosy picture of a young population entering the workforce. With a median age in the mid-twenties, these individuals are assumed to fuel economic growth by earning and spending, thus powering consumption and productivity. But does this narrative tell the whole story?

For an economy to truly thrive, there’s another crucial component: savings. And here’s where the story takes a surprising turn.

A New Perspective: The 50+ Age Group as the Real Economic Pillars

If we shift our focus from consumption to savings, it becomes clear that the 50+ age group plays a far more significant role in sustaining an economy. This is the stage in life where people experience a financial sweet spot - a combination of reduced financial burdens and peak earnings.

Here’s why your 50s might just make you part of the real demographic dividend:

1. Peak earning years

By the time you hit your 50s, you’re likely at the height of your career. The promotions have rolled in, the raises have added up, and you’re earning more than ever before. This surplus income creates a strong base for significant savings.

2. Debt-free living

Those pesky EMIs that once ate into your monthly income? Gone. By this stage, most people have paid off their home and car loans, leaving more room for investments and savings.

3. No tuition fees

If you’ve been funding your children’s education, chances are that expense is no longer on your plate. No more tuition fees means more financial freedom.

4. No big purchases

In your 50s, you’ve likely ticked off all the big-ticket items - your dream home, a reliable car, maybe even that long-desired vacation. With fewer major expenses, you can focus on building wealth.

5. Reduced insurance costs

Long-term insurance policies you purchased years ago are often fully paid by this time, reducing your financial outflow even further.

Savings vs. Consumption: What Drives the Economy?

While consumption is an important driver of economic growth, savings play a foundational role in creating long-term financial stability. Savings fuel investments, which in turn generate jobs and infrastructure. Countries with higher savings rates often have stronger, more resilient economies.

When we frame the demographic dividend around savings rather than consumption, the narrative shifts. The 50+ age group emerges as an unsung hero, quietly contributing to economic stability through prudent financial decisions and wealth creation.

So, let’s give credit where it’s due. Your 50s are not just about winding down - they’re about winding up your financial legacy. With fewer expenses, higher earnings, and the wisdom to save, this is the decade that can truly power the economy.

Perhaps it’s time we stop exclusively championing the youth as the face of the demographic dividend. Instead, let’s celebrate the contributions of those in their 50s and beyond (the 1970's born Generation as in my case) individuals who, through disciplined savings and thoughtful planning, provide the financial backbone of a thriving economy.

So, will the real demographic dividend group please stand up? If you’re in your 50s, chances are, it’s you. Take a bow - you’ve earned it.

How Bhutan Tourism Reflects Japan: A Tale of Nature, Spirituality, and Conservation

This year, our vacation was a tale of two magical places - starting in Japan, the Land of the Rising Sun, and culminating in Bhutan, the Land of the Thunder Dragon. What struck me most was how both nations seem to have cracked the code for living in harmony with nature. It’s no wonder they both rank high on the global ‘Green Index’. Yet, they approach their love for nature in ways that are unique, yet surprisingly similar at their core.

In Japan, the relationship with nature is deeply rooted in the concept of ‘Shinrin-yoku’, or forest bathing. It’s more than just a walk in the woods - it’s a mindful immersion into the sights, sounds, and smells of the forest, believed to rejuvenate the body and mind. During my visit, I joined a guided forest bathing session in the serene woodlands of Arashiyama Bamboo Groove in Kyoto. The experience was meditative, a gentle reminder of the healing power of nature and how it’s seamlessly woven into Japanese culture.

Bhutan Tourism: Sacred Peaks and Divine Conservation

When we landed in Bhutan, I discovered a different yet equally profound reverence for nature - one that elevates it to the divine. Here, nature isn’t just a source of well-being; it’s sacred. For instance, Bhutan is home to the awe-inspiring Gangkhar Puensum, the world’s highest unclimbed mountain peak, standing tall at over 7,500 meters. During a breathtaking heli ride over the Shangri-La-like wilderness of southern Paro Valley, the peak towered majestically over the landscape, commanding respect and awe (below). It’s not unclimbed because of a lack of interest or courage - far from it. The Bhutanese revere the mountain as a deity, and climbing it is strictly forbidden. To them, the act of scaling such a sacred place would be a transgression against their gods.

This spiritual ethos extends beyond their mountains. Bhutan is the only country in the world where it is mandated by law that 60% of the land must remain forested. As I traveled through lush valleys, dense forests, and the crystal-clear rivulets flowing through their intersections, I saw firsthand how this policy plays out - not just as a number on paper, but as an integral part of their identity. Every breath of fresh air and every shade of green seemed to reflect their unwavering commitment to conservation.

Mandala Displays in Bhutan Tourism: Cosmic Connection to Nature

But Bhutan’s reverence for nature goes even further, blending seamlessly with its spiritual and mythological traditions. This connection comes to life in the intricate mandala displays found in its zhongs and temples. Mandalas in Bhutan are not merely artistic creations; they are cosmic diagrams that represent the spiritual journey from ignorance to enlightenment. These circular patterns, rich with symbolism, mirror the eternal cycle of life, death, and rebirth.

At the heart of these mandalas are often depictions of Guru Rinpoche, also known as Padma Sambhava. His various forms - serene, meditative, and wrathful - take center stage, representing his role as a guiding force leading practitioners toward liberation. Surrounding him, mythological figures like wrathful deities and dragons serve as spiritual protectors, symbolizing the transformative power of overcoming inner and outer demons.

The mandalas, much like the untouched forests and sacred peaks, reflect Bhutan’s deep understanding of interconnectedness. They are a visual reminder that harmony between the spiritual, natural, and human realms is not just an ideal but a way of life.

What’s fascinating is how these philosophies echo one another. In Japan, spending time in nature is healing; in Bhutan, it’s worship. Both cultures understand the need to protect what sustains them, whether through the quiet communion of forest bathing or the reverent preservation of sacred landscapes and cosmic art forms.

As our journey came to an end, I found myself inspired by how both countries balance modernity with a deep respect for the environment and the cosmos. It’s a lesson that the rest of the world could learn from - one that reminds us that the green heart of our planet and the spiritual essence of our existence are worth every effort to protect.

Polymathic AI and the Polycrisis: Navigating the Challenges of the Polyscene Era

Welcome to the Polyscene: A World of Polymaths, Polycrises, and Polyactors

Sometimes, a simple word can unlock a whole new way of seeing the world. Thomas Friedman’s musings on Polymathic Artificial Intelligence and its intersection with our global polycrisis feels like one of those moments - a flash of insight that resonates deeply, sparking connections across disciplines, challenges, and, yes, crises.

Imagine this: a world where artificial intelligence doesn’t just excel at one thing - playing chess, predicting protein folding, or writing Shakespearean sonnets -but can master everything. That’s the Holy Grail of Polymathic AI. Think of it as an AI Renaissance man, comfortably conversing about Mozart’s compositions while simultaneously solving quantum chemistry problems and forecasting the next agricultural breakthrough. It’s the dream of high-dimensional thinking - where silos dissolve, and every piece of the puzzle connects seamlessly.

But hold that thought. Enter polycrisis. The word itself sounds ominous, like a chorus of global challenges harmonizing in dissonance. Climate change doesn’t just warm the planet; it cascades -wrecking crops, fueling migrations, and destabilizing nations. Suddenly, we’re not dealing with a single crisis anymore but a swirling storm of interconnected challenges, each amplifying the next. It’s a mess, really.

And as Friedman points out, the polycrisis isn’t unfolding in isolation. The world is now teeming with polyactors. These are not just the usual suspects -nation-states and their diplomats - but also a motley crew of superpowers, tech giants, rogue hackers, and individuals with global influence. Imagine trying to navigate a chessboard where the rules change mid-game, the players multiply, and the pieces have minds of their own. That’s the challenge for leaders like Tony Blinken (current US Secretary of State), who aren’t just grappling with geopolitics anymore - they’re wrestling with superintelligence, superstorms, and super-angry citizens.

The Polyscene Era: Multiplicity Redefining Our Future

So, where does this leave us? Friedman stitches it all together with a provocative proposition: the world has entered the polyscene. Not the post-Cold War era, not the age of globalization, but a time defined by multiplicity - of problems, actors, and potential solutions.

Let’s face it - the world isn’t getting any simpler. If anything, it feels like the opposite. Every global challenge, from climate change to economic instability, seems tied to a hundred other issues. It’s not just about solving one problem anymore; it’s about understanding how everything connects.

The risk is clear. If we don’t address these challenges in a proactive and collaborative way, they could quickly get out of hand. Think of it as a leaky boat in a storm - you can’t just patch one hole and hope for the best. You need a coordinated effort to keep the whole thing afloat.

You Tube Video Credit:  Intelligence-squared